Rajdeep Sardesai's column: Election results from all over the world are surprising analysts

The year 2024 has been unique for electoral democracies around the world. This year, elections were held in more than 60 countries and the results of most were shocking. In India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi was all set to get more than 400 seats, the BJP lost a parliamentary majority and formed a coalition government. Voters in the UK ousted the young and quick-witted Rishi Sunak, giving the Labour Party an overwhelming majority. And now America has seen Donald Trump make history, while most analysts had predicted that this election would be a tight contest. Despite this, Trump has won unilaterally. Are there any patterns that emerge from these election results in major democracies? First, it is clear that voters have weakened the power of ruling leaders in almost every election around the world. This expression of voter anger and fatigue means that it is becoming increasingly difficult for those in power to remain in their chairs. A big reason for Kamala Harris' defeat was that as vice president she was much more closely associated with President Biden. Biden's weaknesses weighed heavily on him. How could they promise a 'new order' when they themselves were part of an old system? Prime Minister Modi has been the only exception in this anti-incumbency wave, but he too lost 63 seats and his key position has been challenged for the first time in a decade. Our neighbourhood has also seen shocking reversal: look at how Sri Lanka elected its first Communist president. Pakistan has been an exception, where Shehbaz Sharif returned to power, but it was not a free and fair election. The most popular leader there, Imran Khan, was jailed and did not have the right to contest elections. Secondly, a major factor fuelling anti-incumbency sentiments has been the economy. Around the world, governments have struggled to cope with the post-Covid crisis. Even relatively better economic data in the US this year did not hide the reality of the lack of new jobs, falling incomes and rising costs of living. Not surprisingly, working-class and marginalized people have been among Trump's strongest supporters and the economy was the first concern of most voters. The scene was no different in India during the Lok Sabha elections. Agrarian distress and lack of employment options were the two major factors that destroyed the BJP's '400 cross' dream. Third, cultural identity is also important in voters' priorities, which is often lost in the media's focus on democracy and diversity. For example, Harris supporters in the US stressed the need to build a more inclusive, 'new' America that supports and respects people of all faiths and races. This was reversed by Trump's sharp anti-immigrant rhetoric. In a more civilized world, inflammatory comments could have led to widespread condemnation. But in the 2024 election environment, divisive statements were seen as inciting against perceived 'internal enemies'. Harris's passionate appeal for inclusivity in America was identified as one of left-liberal political correctness, harming the interests of 'white' Americans. In India too, those who support Nehru's theory of 'unity in diversity' are dismissed as 'pseudo-secularists' or 'anti-nationals' or 'urban naxalites'. In India, Lutyens' elites were considered 'enemies', in America Washington 'establishment'. Powerful leaders in the form of political bullies have found a similar formula for success. If Modi has a dream of a 'developed India' by 2047, Trump too has been promising to 'Make America Great Again'. His popularity reflects the strengthening nationalist tendency among the voters. Creating fear of 'outsiders', whether they are immigrants from Puerto Rico or Haiti in the US or Rohingya or Bangladeshi 'infiltrators' in India, is part of a strategy to strengthen a separate identity. A major reason for Harris' defeat was that as vice president, she was closely associated with Biden. Biden's weaknesses weighed heavily on him. How could they promise a 'new order' when they themselves were part of the old system? These are the author's own opinions)